I like The New York Giants with the money line (+ $140 to + $150) and Under 53 1/2. Brady will have to win this game by himself. He is too overrated to do so. Go Giants.
Final: Giants 33, Pats 20
Sunday, February 5, 2012
Friday, January 20, 2012
How does Tom Brady get mentioned in the same breath as Joe Montana?
(TDS Include Rushing/ Final YDS/PG Include Rushing)
Tom Brady Superbowls:
Vs STL Rams: 16 of 27, 145 Yards 1 TD 0 INT (MVP)
Vs CAR Panthers: 32 of 48, 354 Yards 3 TD 1 INT (MVP)
Vs PHI Eagles: 23 of 33, 236 Yards 2 TD 0 INT
Vs NY Giants: 29 of 48, 266 Yards 1 TD 0 INT
Record 3-1. 254 YDS/PG; 1.75 TD/PG to .25 INT/PG; 64% Completion Percentage; 6.42 YDS/ATT
NE Avg. PPG = 23
Joe Montana Superbowls:
Vs CIN Bengals: 14 of 22, 157 Yards 2 TD 0 INT (MVP)
Vs MIA Dolphins: 24 of 35, 331 Yards 4 TD 0 INT (MVP)
Vs CIN Bengals: 23 of 36, 357 Yards 2 TD 0 INT
Vs DEN Broncos: 22 of 29, 297 Yards 5 TD 0 INT (MVP)
Record 4-0. 312 YDS/PG; 3.25 TD/PG to 0 INT/PG; 68% Completion Percentage; 9.36 YDS/ATT
SF Avg. PPG = 35
Joe Averaged 1.5 more TDs per game and almost 3 more YDS/ATT. His teams averaged 12 more PPG and Joe could very easily have had a 4th MVP for his 357 Yard, 2 TD 0 INT performance his second time around against the Bengals. Brady was more than lucky to get his 1st MVP where the offense was responsible for only 13 points in that game. The only offensive touchdown coming on a 40 Yard drive after a STL fumble, the other TD coming from a Ty Law INT return. One of the field goals cam off a turnover where NE drove a total of 11 yards! It sickens me when Brady gets mentioned with him. That is why I must root against him at every turn.
Tom Brady Superbowls:
Vs STL Rams: 16 of 27, 145 Yards 1 TD 0 INT (MVP)
Vs CAR Panthers: 32 of 48, 354 Yards 3 TD 1 INT (MVP)
Vs PHI Eagles: 23 of 33, 236 Yards 2 TD 0 INT
Vs NY Giants: 29 of 48, 266 Yards 1 TD 0 INT
Record 3-1. 254 YDS/PG; 1.75 TD/PG to .25 INT/PG; 64% Completion Percentage; 6.42 YDS/ATT
NE Avg. PPG = 23
Joe Montana Superbowls:
Vs CIN Bengals: 14 of 22, 157 Yards 2 TD 0 INT (MVP)
Vs MIA Dolphins: 24 of 35, 331 Yards 4 TD 0 INT (MVP)
Vs CIN Bengals: 23 of 36, 357 Yards 2 TD 0 INT
Vs DEN Broncos: 22 of 29, 297 Yards 5 TD 0 INT (MVP)
Record 4-0. 312 YDS/PG; 3.25 TD/PG to 0 INT/PG; 68% Completion Percentage; 9.36 YDS/ATT
SF Avg. PPG = 35
Joe Averaged 1.5 more TDs per game and almost 3 more YDS/ATT. His teams averaged 12 more PPG and Joe could very easily have had a 4th MVP for his 357 Yard, 2 TD 0 INT performance his second time around against the Bengals. Brady was more than lucky to get his 1st MVP where the offense was responsible for only 13 points in that game. The only offensive touchdown coming on a 40 Yard drive after a STL fumble, the other TD coming from a Ty Law INT return. One of the field goals cam off a turnover where NE drove a total of 11 yards! It sickens me when Brady gets mentioned with him. That is why I must root against him at every turn.
NYG +2.5 and Under 42 (Also suggesting a teaser here NYG+8.5 and Under 48)
This was an extremely difficult pick to make as I like both these teams so much. I am going to break this game down into parts...
Passing Off: Moderate Advantage Giants
Running Off: Slight Advantage 49ers
Run DEF: Slight Advantage 49ers
Pass DEF: Even (49ers better secondary, NYG better pass rush)
Special Teams: Slight Advantage 49ers
Intangibles: Slight Advantage 49ers
The 49ers Red Zone Defense, excellent secondary/pass rush, and the fact that I believe the Giants will not be able to run the ball at all in this game will keep the score very low. The Giants, if they are to win this game, will have to get to Alex Smith early and often and force turnovers. The problem is Smith hasn't turned the ball over this year and he won't start this week. The 49ers DEF has already played the best Offense in football and caused 5 turnovers. They hit hard. I believe they will win the turnover battle this week but they will be significantly outgained through the air. This will be an incredibly close contest decided by less than a field goal. The winner of this game will win the Superbowl (my initial playoff prediction). Eli Manning is by far the better of the QBs and in my opinion playing the best QB of anyone left in the playoffs, if the game comes down to him he will probably pull it out. I am conflicted here but must make a prediction. The 49ers secondary will neutralize Hakeem Nicks and make enough big plays in all three phases to pull this game out.
Final 49ers 20, Giants 19
Passing Off: Moderate Advantage Giants
Running Off: Slight Advantage 49ers
Run DEF: Slight Advantage 49ers
Pass DEF: Even (49ers better secondary, NYG better pass rush)
Special Teams: Slight Advantage 49ers
Intangibles: Slight Advantage 49ers
The 49ers Red Zone Defense, excellent secondary/pass rush, and the fact that I believe the Giants will not be able to run the ball at all in this game will keep the score very low. The Giants, if they are to win this game, will have to get to Alex Smith early and often and force turnovers. The problem is Smith hasn't turned the ball over this year and he won't start this week. The 49ers DEF has already played the best Offense in football and caused 5 turnovers. They hit hard. I believe they will win the turnover battle this week but they will be significantly outgained through the air. This will be an incredibly close contest decided by less than a field goal. The winner of this game will win the Superbowl (my initial playoff prediction). Eli Manning is by far the better of the QBs and in my opinion playing the best QB of anyone left in the playoffs, if the game comes down to him he will probably pull it out. I am conflicted here but must make a prediction. The 49ers secondary will neutralize Hakeem Nicks and make enough big plays in all three phases to pull this game out.
Final 49ers 20, Giants 19
NE -7 and Over 50
As good as that Baltimore Defense is NE just has too many weapons on offense. I don't see them being held to Under 24 points which is what would be necessary for Flacco and the Ravens to win. The Ravens will find it much easier to score points this week as the Patriots aren't nearly as physical or talented as the Texans. Tom Brady really wants/needs this game for his legacy. He will throw 50 times in this game.
Final: Patriots 31, Baltimore 23
Final: Patriots 31, Baltimore 23
Divisional Round Recap...
Did poorly 3-5 ATS last week. I did however pick the winner of every game correctly and am still perfect in picking the NFC ATS games in the playoffs (not Over/Under). Also if you look at my pre-playoff predictions I offered my picks to win the Superbowl NYG @ 20 to 1 and the 49ers @ 12 to 1; both very much alive and those odds are fantastic. My Superbowl pick of SF Over NE is also still alive. I am having a tough time picking this weeks NFC game as the Giants are hitting on all cylinders.
Sunday, January 15, 2012
Giants +7.5 and Under 54
This will be a battle in the cold. Aaron Rodgers is the best QB in the NFL. I feel like he will have to be near flawless to win today. Their first game was close and the Giants are playing better now. I really feel like this game is toss up so I will take the 7.5 points. I also feel like both teams will score in the mid twenties. I really don't even want to pick a winner here. I am so pumped for this game and like both of these teams so much. I feel overtime. History is always repeating itself.
Final: (OT) Giants 27, Packers 24.
Final: (OT) Giants 27, Packers 24.
Baltimore -8 and Over 37.5
Baltimore and Joe Flacco have turned in a couple of stinkers (San Diego, Jacksonville, Seattle) this year but they have also crushed some great teams (Niners, Pittsburgh, Texans). When these teams play their best games the Ravens are at least 10 points better. The Ray-vens (Ray Rice/Lewis) know the magnitude of this game and will help carry their team. Houston had a nice run, I just can't see T.J. Yates living up to the moment here.
Final: Baltimore 27, Houston 13
Final: Baltimore 27, Houston 13
Saturday, January 14, 2012
Broncos +13.5 and Under 50.5
The last time these two teams met the Patriots won by 18 and the total was 64. Now the venue has switched from Denver to New England, so why would Denver gain ground? Denver had a two score lead early on in their first contest with New England but three second quarter fumbles derailed the momentum train and left Denver down two scores going into the second half. I don't believe Denver will turn the ball over at all today. Also Tebow. He killed me last week I am not going to go against him this week. New England won't let Tebow beat them deep. Denver should run often and well. Well enough to control the clock and keep the score lower and closer than last time. Denver's Defense is also playing very well right now. Brady has gotten run over in his last two home playoff games. I think New England will eke out a victory today however.
Final: Patriots 29, Denver 21
Final: Patriots 29, Denver 21
San Francisco +4 and Under 47
If this game was played in New Orleans, in the dome, I would be picking the Saints to win by double digits. It is not. The Saints offense just simply isn't the same outdoors and on the road. The 49ers are well rested and have arguably the best defense in the NFL. Against lesser defenses on the road this year the Saints were held to totals of 23, 20, 21, 23 (regulation vs ATL). This offense can be slowed, the Niners are certainly capable. Alex Smith's Total QBR is 71.6 at home. Brees's is 80.5 on the road. If these stats hold today the only real advantage (the passing game) that the Saints have won't be that much of an advantage. The 49ers are better on Defense, Special Teams, and in the running game. They will also have the crowd.
Final: 49ers 23, Saints 20
Final: 49ers 23, Saints 20
Last week
For Wildcard Weekend I went 4-4 counting the over/under(s). Not a great week. The games I got right I really got right and the games I got wrong I was dead wrong. 2-0 in both the Saints and Giants victories and 0-2 in the Bengals' and Steelers' collapses. I am however extremely excited and way more confident about this week. I may be delusional. 2-0 in the NFC and 0-2 in the AFC.
Readers
This week I hope one person will find and comment on this blog. For good or bad, rip me please.
Friday, January 6, 2012
Entire 2012 Playoffs predicted...
This is just for my own fun.
Wildcard Weekend:
AFC
6) Bengals over 3)Texans
5) Steelers over 4)Broncos
NFC
3) Saints over 6) Lions
4) Giants over 5) Falcons
Divisional Round:
AFC
1) Patriots over 6) Bengals
2) Ravens over 5) Steelers
NFC
4) Giants over 1) Packers
2) 49ers over 3) Saints
Conference Finals
1) Patriots over 2) Ravens
2) 49ers over 4) Giants
Superbowl
49ers over Patriots
If you are going to bet a team or two to win it all before the playoffs begin, I love the 49ers at 12 to 1 and the New York Giants at 20 to 1. I do think one of these two teams will lift the Lombardi trophy with a great payout for you.
Wildcard Weekend:
AFC
6) Bengals over 3)Texans
5) Steelers over 4)Broncos
NFC
3) Saints over 6) Lions
4) Giants over 5) Falcons
Divisional Round:
AFC
1) Patriots over 6) Bengals
2) Ravens over 5) Steelers
NFC
4) Giants over 1) Packers
2) 49ers over 3) Saints
Conference Finals
1) Patriots over 2) Ravens
2) 49ers over 4) Giants
Superbowl
49ers over Patriots
If you are going to bet a team or two to win it all before the playoffs begin, I love the 49ers at 12 to 1 and the New York Giants at 20 to 1. I do think one of these two teams will lift the Lombardi trophy with a great payout for you.
Pittsburgh -8.5 over Denver & Under 33.5
This is the game I am having the most trouble figuring out. What I think I do know is that Pittsburgh's Defense will handle Tebow easily. I just don't know if Roethlisburger is healthy enough to score enough points on Denver's Defense without Mendenhall or Pouncey to cover the spread. But I am going to say that they do.
Final: Steelers 19, Broncos 9
Final: Steelers 19, Broncos 9
New York Giants -3 over Atlanta & Under 47.5
The Giants are really coming into form much the way they did when they beat the undefeated Patriots a couple of years ago. This team has enough weapons on both sides of the ball to be extremely scary when they want actually to play and Eli is having probably the best year of his career. Atlanta doesn't impress me at all. Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco are both the same overrated QB just in different conferences.
The Giants Defense will dominate the Falcons offense enough to keep the score well below the 47.5 total.
Final: Giants 28, Falcons 13
The Giants Defense will dominate the Falcons offense enough to keep the score well below the 47.5 total.
Final: Giants 28, Falcons 13
New Orleans -10.5 over Detroit & Over 59
What we have here is two great passing offenses against two very bad passing defenses. Stafford will make enough mistakes for this game to get out of hand by early in the 4th quarter. Calvin Johnson and Detroit's D-Line do scare me. If they dominate like they can New Orleans could be in for a scare. I don't think they will however. New Orleans looks primed for a serious run.
Both offenses have been down right frightening the past 3 weeks.
Final: Saints 41, Lions 27
Both offenses have been down right frightening the past 3 weeks.
Final: Saints 41, Lions 27
Cincinnati +4 over Houston & Under 38
I have been enamored with gambling since the age of 12. I am usually not very good at it, no matter how much time or effort I put in. The NFL playoffs however are different for me; especially the Superbowl. I have always done very well in January and early February. I wanted to start keeping a record so here it is. I won't waste everyone's time with exactly how every pick is made but know that I do spend a lot of time looking at stats and past results...these aren't gut feeling picks. Who knows, maybe someone will read this.
I will take Cincinnati plus the 4 here. All of Cincy's losses have come against playoff teams, most in one score contests against teams better than Houston currently is. I feel like this game will come down to which rookie QB makes fewer mistakes. Dalton has a better resume and more practice this year. In a game most likely decided by a field goal Cincy gets a 4 point cushion.
I will also take under 38 here. Both defenses are the superior units and even with 5 total fumbles lost by both teams in their earlier meeting this year both teams only totaled 39. One TD for each team in this meeting sounds right.
Final: Bengals 19, Texans 16
I will take Cincinnati plus the 4 here. All of Cincy's losses have come against playoff teams, most in one score contests against teams better than Houston currently is. I feel like this game will come down to which rookie QB makes fewer mistakes. Dalton has a better resume and more practice this year. In a game most likely decided by a field goal Cincy gets a 4 point cushion.
I will also take under 38 here. Both defenses are the superior units and even with 5 total fumbles lost by both teams in their earlier meeting this year both teams only totaled 39. One TD for each team in this meeting sounds right.
Final: Bengals 19, Texans 16
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